Checking the Market Before Investors Do
An assumptions audit and investor model for a pre-launch travel marketplace
Pre-launch travel marketplace with a commission and subscription model | Pre-revenue, preparing a pre-seed raise | Financial modeling: assumptions audit and investor model | July to August 2026
At a glance
13,000, not 22,000 to 23,000
the supply count the founder set on July 22, once the sources we checked converged at about 11,000 to 14,000
100,000, not 1M
the subscriber case the founder set on July 23, after our review judged 1M would not survive diligence
53 inputs graded against 21 sources
the assumptions book behind the model
6,700 formulas, 0 failed checks
the investor model as delivered by August 19
The situation
The founder of a pre-launch travel marketplace was preparing a pre-seed raise. The business had no revenue yet. At the start:
- his projections assumed 22,000 to 23,000 bookable units in the market, an unverified count, and a 1M subscriber target
- his starter model had no bottoms-up revenue build, cash timing or working capital
What we did
- Graded every input in the founder’s assumptions, and triangulated the supply count from a government registry, the largest booking system in the segment and one location’s share (July 21 to 22)
- Audited each revision of his projections (July 23 to 28)
- Advised against anchoring the raise on a single revenue projection (July 24)
- Built the investor model on the graded inputs, stage by stage (July 28 to August 19):
- a bottoms-up revenue build across 7 size brackets and 4 revenue streams
- cash timing and deferred revenue
- operating costs with stepped headcount, and a monthly P&L
What we found
- The supply count. The sources we checked converged at about 11,000 to 14,000 units, against 22,000 to 23,000 in the plan.
- The model. As delivered by August 19, it ran 6,700 formulas across 16 tabs with 0 failed checks, and its assumptions book graded 53 inputs against 21 sources.
Results
- The supply count reset. On July 22, the founder set the base at 13,000 and retired the 22,000 to 23,000 count.
- A smaller subscriber case. On July 23, he set the subscriber case at 100,000, after our assumptions review judged that 1M would not survive diligence.
- Market-size arithmetic fixed. On July 28, a revision of his projections fixed every open arithmetic item in the market sizing.
How we measured this: the figures are the model’s assumptions and the checks of its 53 inputs against 21 sources; the business had no revenue yet, so none of them are operating results.
What it means
Investors test the inputs before the formulas. The time to trace a market count to its source is before it reaches a pitch, not after an investor asks where it came from.